TALLAHASSEE, Fla. – We are 55 days away from the start of the Atlantic hurricane season, and a renowned seasonal forecaster made his early predictions.
Dr. Phil Klotzbach from Colorado State is calling for 11 named storms in 2017, with four of those hurricanes. Two of those hurricanes would be category three or higher on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale (winds >110 mph).
[Link to PDF of the seasonal forecast]
The numbers are below the median number of storms between 1981 to 2010 (12 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, 2 major).
Klotzbach explains that there are some factors into the forecast. First let’s start at the one where everybody knows it’s name (cue Cheers theme music): El Niño. After haivng weak La Niña conditions last year, we have been moving towards neutral conditions. But water temperature anomalies have been hinting at above-normal temps in the eastern Pacific.
Water temp anomalies in the eastern areas near the coast of Peru are have been trending upward. Long range sea surface temp (SST) models are hinting at warmer conditions, hinting at a development of at least a weak El Niño later in the summer.
El Niño can enhance wind shear in the Atlantic basin, restricting sufficient thunderstorm development, and, therefore, limiting tropical cyclone development.
Other factors in the forecast include recent cooling of the Atlantic waters, according to Klotzbach. But he says there is uncertainty if the cooling will persist.
Regardless of the numbers, Kevin Peters, the Leon County Emergency Management director, reminds people that it will only take one storm in a season to cause havoc (he used Hurricane Andrew as an example).
“There is going to be a risk this hurricane season,” Peters told us Friday afternoon. “We don’t know if it will be Florida, [somewhere] in the Atlantic or the Gulf of Mexico. We got to be ready because it could happen again.”
Klotzbach says his next round of predictions for the season will be released on June 1, the first day of hurricane season.
