TALLAHASSEE, Fla. – An unusually strong storm system will develop across the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday and bring moderate to locally heavy rainfall to the region through the weekend and into the first of the week, the National Weather Service Tallahassee is reporting.
While much of the region has been in drought conditions through the fall, several recent moderate rainfall events have led to some areas with above normal rainfall over the last month. Most area rivers are now above base flows, with some of the faster responding creeks and rivers nearing minor flood stage. This sets the stage for potential flooding moving into the weekend.
Flood Potential and Concerns While there is still uncertainty with respect to the exact track of the approaching storm system, the consensus of the available model forecasts suggest at least 2 to 4 inches of rain across much of the region with isolated heavier totals of 6 to 8 inches. Because the location of heaviest rainfall is track dependent, that has considerable impact on where the greatest threat for flooding exists.
Currently, the most vulnerable areas are in Southeast Alabama and portions of Southwestern Georgia along the Flint River Basin, notably along the Kinchafoonee and Muckalee Creeks north of Albany.
Heavy rainfall occurring in the headwaters of these creeks could lead to moderate river flooding in the days ahead. The Chattahoochee and Apalachicola Rivers are also vulnerable to flooding as upstream releases already have these rivers running above normal, and additional releases due to runoff could lead to further flooding. The rainfall is expected to occur mainly over Saturday and Sunday.
Because the rainfall will be spread out over a 48 hour period, this suggests the threat of flash flooding will be low. Thus the primary concern in the days ahead will be focused on river flooding. .Preparedness Actions Should conditions continue to indicate an increased likelihood of heavy rainfall this weekend, a flood watch may be issued for a portion of our area Friday afternoon or Saturday.
Residents living along area creeks and rivers should consider evaluating their flood threat, especially in locations with already above normal river levels. For an assessment of current and future hydrologic information in the Tallahassee area of responsibility, visit our website at www.weather.gov/tallahassee and click on the rivers and lakes link.
Users of hydrologic forecasts are reminded that these predictions only utilize the next 48 hours of rainfall, so river forecasts issued Friday morning will begin to include rainfall from this weekend’s event.
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Possible Target Area: Baker; Ben Hill; Berrien; Brooks; Calhoun; Clay; Colquitt; Cook; Decatur; Dougherty; Early; Grady; Irwin; Lanier; Lee; Lowndes; Miller; Mitchell; Quitman; Randolph; Seminole; Terrell; Thomas; Tift; Turner; Worth, Fl.
