Source: GNN, Mike Wetherbee
NOTE: Black Crow Media is the official radio broadcast network for Lowndes County.
UPDATE: Tuesday, October 9, 11:16 a.m.
A little more than 24 hours from MICHAEL landfall. Florida evacuations continue as Panhandle residents get ready for a major hurricane. Storm surge is already starting with each tidal cycle along Florida’s Gulf Coast, Tampa 2.56’ anomaly and surge up to 13 feet in Apalachicola Bay expected, a very critical and sensitive coastline to storm surge.
Georgia’s Governor has issued a “State of Emergency” ahead of MICHAEL for South Georgia. Don’t panic; it reinforces the potential problems of MICHAEL and frees up the paperwork to get assets into those areas that will need the help. You need to be proactive in your planning and finish up for strong gusty winds and the potential for locally heavy rainfall inland.
I worry about power outages. With the stronger winds, one limb falls and knocks out power for a neighborhood. I know our service-providers are on stand-by and any problems will not likely last very long. But let’s be safe. Have you got medications that need to stay refrigerated? Pack a cooler or make a deal with a neighbor who owns a generator. Be proactive.
MICHAEL is a Cat 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds moving N at 12 mph, pressure continues to fall at 965 mbs. The eye is 360 miles south of Panama City, 335 miles south of Apalachicola. Tropical storm watches extend now to Charleston with this advisory. Hurricane WARNINGS for the Florida Panhandle and SW Georgia, Tropical Storm WARNING into South Central Georgia.
Note MICHAEL will become a Major Hurricane, Cat 3 at 111 mph. Expect that with the next advisory as the Hunters report the storm is still strengthening. No changes in rainfall forecast, still 4-8” up to 12” locally across Florida and Georgia, the threat of tornadoes late tonight and tomorrow, SPC in Norman is watching for those rotations in the outer bands, already approaching Central Florida.
Good agreement on the models up to landfall, the curve to the northeast tomorrow as Michael gets embedded in the westerlies of the approaching trough from the Plains. No changes there but both the GFS and ECMWF have slowed down MICHAEL just a bit after landfall on Wednesday and the official forecast track reflects this, rainfall models will catch up on the next dataset.
A couple of don’ts: Don’t compare MICHAEL to any other storm (as is the rage on FB right now), each storm is different; don’t panic, finish your preps and be ready for a noisy night Wednesday night, and this will end quickly with a better weekend forecast; and don’t forget to get the “missiles” out of your yard, those things that will fly with the stronger winds and hurt something.
Be safe and we’ll be watching!
VALDOSTA – (Monday 1100 October 8, 2018)
I have TWO messages:
- MICHAEL will be a Major Hurricane, landfall near Apalachicola, FL;
- Tropical Storm Warnings will be posted INLAND all the way to the Carolinas.
Really? A Major Hurricane? Winds over 111 mph? YES! Let that sink in for a moment. Suddenly, the models are backing off the wind shear on the Gulf transit opening the door for the well-defined core of MICHAEL to intensify quickly. Storm Surge up to 12 feet from Tampa to Pensacola, even impacting Mobile Bay. And now, a life-threatening situation is developing.
States of emergency have been issued, evacuations for many communities on the Panhandle begin as early as tomorrow. You must finish your hurricane plans for your family, your business by tomorrow as tropical-storm-force (39-73 mph) winds hit the Florida beaches by Tuesday 8pm eastern. Hurricane-force-winds by Wednesday sunset.
Rainfall estimates have jumped as well, now 4-8” for the Panhandle and into SW and Central Georgia, locally 12” producing flash flooding. Lesser rain amounts along the Georgia coast with 3-6” max through Thursday evening, and 2-4” Lowcountry into the Carolinas. Two things: the speed of MICHAEL will help keep rainfall totals down, and not much rain over FLORENCE areas.
For context, this storm may be similar to HERMINE in 2016 with landfall and quick storm track inland across Georgia. This will be nothing like FLORENCE or GORDON earlier this year, and similar impacts inland over SW Georgia like IRMA last year. And nothing like MATTHEW, though some storm damage and the clean-up-efforts will be similar.
NOW INLAND? Tropical Storm Watches have already been posted for SW Georgia. On the official storm track, the center will be near Bainbridge in the SW corner of Georgia at Thursday 1am, tracking across Tifton to Statesboro by Thursday 6am, into Hampton, SC to Florence, SC Thursday afternoon. Here’s the key to inland problems: THE SPEED OF MICHAEL.
There’s no chance to “rub-off” the strong winds. With landfall, we’ll lose the hurricane punch, but tropical-storm-force winds near 50 mph are now forecast as MICHAEL passes Savannah. And those winds arrive by 10am Wednesday morning, a little later than originally forecast. Again, all of this is on the right, or east, or “dirty side” of MICHAEL. And there’s one more threat….
TORNADOES. With any land-falling tropical cyclone, there is always the threat of embedded EF0, EF1 and even EF2 tornadoes quickly forming with very little notice. So, the Panhandle with landfall, and all of South Georgia and Coastal Carolina needs to be ready for the damaging winds. SPC is already preparing for watches and warnings.
There are still questions about timing and intensity. Later tonight as MICHAEL finally “resets” entering the Gulf, we will start to get these important answers. Most of the global suites are farther west, however the majority of the models are leaning farther east. We do know MICHAEL is will be big problem for the Florida Panhandle and South Georgia region
Now do you have the picture? Get preps done now, major hurricane could threaten our coastline, MICHAEL will move fast holding tropical-storm-force winds inland thru midday Thursday, some flash-flooding, the threat of tornadoes and by Friday 9am, we are done with the storm passing New York City way offshore. Follow the evacuation orders.
John Wetherbee, CBM
Meteorologist
