July tropical development possible in Atlantic Ocean

| July 5, 2017

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) – It’s already one month into hurricane season. The Atlantic basin already had three names storms so far this season. Tropical Storm Cindy most recently impacted the Gulf coast in June.

July climatology shows that tropical development is less likely when compared to August through October. Most July tropical systems may develop near the Lesser Antilles, the Western Atlantic Ocean, or the Gulf of Mexico. There are a few outliers that do not necessarily follow that pattern.

A couple of tropical waves are being monitored in the Atlantic basin. The one pictured above has been is Invest 94L. It is a disorganized area of low pressure. Scattered showers and clouds remain. Right now, dry air is making development difficult. It has a 20% chance of development in the next two days. As this disturbance moves slowly west, the atmospheric conditions will be a little more favorable for development. This disturbance has a 70% chance of development in the next five days.

The disturbance is very far away from the United States. Forecast models are trending west toward the Lesser Antilles. It may strengthen into a tropical depression. Around the weekend, some models are hinting at a northerly turn to the north of the Lesser Antilles. It’s important to note that these models are for 5 to seven days from July 3. There is still plenty of time for changes in these model runs. So far, this disturbance does not pose a threat to North Florida or South Georgia.

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